Geo-Politics

Geopolitical Significant of South and South East Asia in World Theater

Abstract South and South-East Asia cover global attraction in the time period. With emerging global economic, resident of around one-third of the total population, global power competition is focused in the region. Chinese influence in the region is rising on the other side, US engagements in the region to deter China is growing. This review paper will concentrate addressing the question: How does the region becomes pivotal point for geo-political competitions? With growing influence of China in the region, the US engagement is also increasing. This paper focuses on the power struggle of US and China in the region behind these engagements. The rising US military and economic assistance to countries like Nepal shows the geopolitical involvement in the region for global power politics. Download full Article

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Tensions Gripped by “Spy” Balloon: Here’s How Both Nuclear Power Manage Past Confrontations 

Bidhur Dhakal Tensions between the two powerhouses were seemingly easing after US President Joe Biden meets with his Chinese counterpart, President Xi Jinping in Sideline of the G20 summit in Bali in November last year. As a result of the talks, US Secretary of State Antony  Blinken was preparing to visit Beijing. However, the relations between the two countries have suddenly become tense. The reason is – the ‘Chinese Spy balloon’. Though the balloon was for a spy or for scientific research; the US called it a Spy balloon, while China is calling it the “civilian airship used for research, mainly meteorological, purposes.” The U.S. Fired a missile on Sunday and dropped the balloon. It took the U.S. a week to shoot down the balloon which caused a rift in Sino-U.S. Relations. On Sunday (Saturday local time), a US military fighter jet dropped the balloon on the coast of South Carolina. President Biden signed the order on Wednesday, but the Pentagon suggested waiting. When the balloon reached the beach from the human settlement, the U.S. army fired a missile at it. “They brought it down successfully, and I want to appreciate our aviators who did it,” Biden said. F-22 fighter jets operated against the balloon in the sky with the help of a missile. U.S. defence officials told U.S. Media the wreckage had fallen into 47 foot  of water near the beach, in South Carolina, CNN reported. The wreckage of the balloon is spread over an area of 11 kilometres and two naval ships and a crane have been used to search for it. An F-22 fighter jet from Virginia Air Base downed it at 2:39 p.m. Local time on Saturday, as more fighter jets and refuelling aircraft were deployed to shoot it down. A single AIM-9X supersonic, hit-seeking, air-to-air missile was used, a US defence official was quoted as saying by Reuters. For two days, U.S. officials didn’t publicly comment on the balloons in U.S. airspace. Biden ordered it to be dropped on Wednesday, but it was not dropped. On Thursday, Pentagon officials made public information about this. As soon as the balloon entered American airspace, fighter aircraft were deployed to monitor it. Biden was advised not to take it down, anticipating the damage it could cause. Accordingly, the US took time to drop it. U.S. officials said the balloon was taken into “custody” as soon as it entered U.S. airspace. It was said to have been controlled and monitored by military aircraft with pilots. Diplomatic relations between the two countries deteriorated with the balloon. The US Secretary of State Antony Bliken’s visit to Beijing has been postponed. His visit was scheduled to take place next week. However, both country have not officially announced the date of the visit. The US Secretary of State Blinken’s visit has said that there is no justification for unilaterally postponing the visit. “In fact, neither side has ever announced that there would be a visit. It is a matter for the US to make its latest announcement, and we respect that,” the Chinese Foreign Ministry said in a statement on Saturday. The Chinese Foreign Ministry said the balloon’s entry into the US sky was unexpected. It called the balloon a civilian airship and claimed that it was used for meteorological use. It also said the balloon had limited self-steering capabilities and moved away from the planned course. Although the date has not been announced, a senior state department official told a press briefing on Saturday that Secretary Blinken is preparing to leave for the visit on Saturday night. “The Secretary was prepared to depart for Beijing tonight, to take on a wide-ranging agenda that would have encompassed all elements of the relationship,” a State Department official said. The US Secretary of State Blinken held a telephone conversation with State Councilor Wang Yi, who is also a senior diplomatic adviser to Chinese President Xi. He said the United States remains committed to maintaining diplomatic engagement and an open line of communication and is ready to visit Beijing if circumstances permit.  Meanwhile, China protested after the US military shot down the balloon. China’s Foreign Ministry said in a statement that it was “deeply dissatisfied and protested”. “The Chinese side has consistently told the US side that the balloon was for non-military purposes and had strayed. It was a complete accident,” the Chinese Foreign Ministry said. China’s Defense Ministry also protested the US action, saying that the US Air Force shot down a Chinese civilian unmanned aircraft that entered us airspace unexpectedly. ““We solemnly protest this move by the US side and reserve the right to take necessary measures to deal with similar situations,” Chinese Defense Ministry spokesman Senior Colonel Tan Kefei said in a statement. Meanwhile, Chinese defence experts called the US’ move like ’shooting a mosquito with a cannon, the Global Times reported.China’s defence ministry spokesman’s warning has increased the risk of a military confrontation between the two countries. “If a similar aircraft is seen in Chinese airspace, the Chinese military will also shoot it down,” the Global Times said in a commentary. “It’s clear that U.S. aircraft, whether they are for military purposes or for civilian purposes,” Lü Xiang, an expert on US studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, adds “If the US cannot distinguish between civil and military aircraft, it will set a wrong precedent in China-US relations.” The two countries had avoided a military confrontation in the past as well This is not the first incident, which brings two nuclear power to military confrontations. We can observe such incidents in history that could have brought these nuclear power into the war. But, those confrontations were resolved with “Civilian Diplomacy”. Belgrade Incident At midnight on May 7, 1999, the US-led NATO military coalition fired a missile at the Chinese embassy in Belgrade, the capital of Yugoslavia. Three Chinese, (two on attack and one later) were killed on the attack. Then US President Bill Clinton publicly apologized after the attack. It was a planned attack by Chinese authorities. France’s Defense Ministry said in a report

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Concern on Implementation of BRI in Nepal, a Challenge to New FM

Bidhur Dhakal Nepal is running behind the political hurdles after the formation of the New Government in 2022. The hunk parliament from the election held in 2022 has created political turmoil in Nepal. Soon after the electoral election coalition has break up and a New coalition with a majority of the leftist government was formed. The coalitions remained until the election of the President and were broke. The largest communist party in the coalition has stepped back. In this context, the country is lagging in foreign relations and foreign policy. For about one and a half-month foreign ministry was vacant. During this period there was a lagging of ministerial dialogue with the ‘Counter Part’ of other nations. It impacts Bilateral relations and enhances foreign affairs. This shows the irresponsible attitude of the leadership on foreign affairs. The political instability in Nepal is always been a concern of China. With the formation of New Govern in Nepal, the US engagement was in hype at the start of 2023. Soon after the change in the coalition vacant, the line ministry Nepal lags in engaging with the friend from the North. China has been concerned about Nepal’s political changes, especially with the US asking questions about the impact of the Tibetan refugee crisis. Communist leader Bhandari expressed his feelings that the Communist Party of China (CPM) was not only in China but also in good faith in the government. China is sure of Nepal. The national leader met him today. There is long-term lasting concern about the “Tibet Issue” in Nepal for China. The US official engagement in Kathmandu has raised it more. Next, the implementation of the BRI in Nepal. The US program MCC, which was agreed upon late after BRI, has been ratified by parliament and is going on implementation. BIR, on the other hand, is not able to proceed. China has communicated with Nepal concerning this issue regularly. The congratulatory message from President Xi Jinping to newly elected Nepalese counterpart Ramchandra Paudel has attached great importance to the development of China-Nepal relations and is willing to work with Poudel to carry forward the traditional friendship between the two countries, consolidate mutual political trust, advance high-quality Belt and Road cooperation, expand cultural and people-to-people exchanges, to constantly promote the strategic partnership of cooperation featuring ever-lasting friendship for development and prosperity. On the 15th Round of the Diplomatic Consultation meeting held between Nepal and China early this month, China again raised the issue of the implementation of BRI. Challenge for New Minister The member of the central working committee of the Nepali Congress party, Narayan Prakash Saud assumed the office of Foreign Minister in mid of April. A foreign affair is a new area for Saud, who has been entrusted with the responsibility of strengthening foreign relations by winning the trust of Prime Minister Puspa Kamal Dahal as well as balancing great power. It will be his responsibility to maintain balanced foreign relations by closely observing the growing geopolitical ups and downs internationally. Soon after assuming office at the Ministry, Minister Saud said that He said Nepal would continue to deepen relations with all its neighbours. Saud has taken charge of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs at a time when the country’s challenge is to maintain balanced relations with India and China, which are emerging economies of different political systems, and to increase relations with other countries, including the US, in line with the national interest in the changing geopolitical environment. Foreign relations have to be managed in the context of internal political instability in Nepal and a coalition government between different political parties. Powers, including neighbours, are also trying to manage their interests. At such a time, it will be the responsibility to move forward with a non-aligned foreign policy. Nepal this time needs to avoid the geopolitical conflict of dominance in the US, China, and other countries in the world. Nepal has not given a clear answer to Beijing regarding the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) project initiated by China. Nepal signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) in 2017 to join the BRI project. Similarly, Minister Saud has been challenged to clarify Nepal’s position on the Global Security Initiative (GSI) and The Global Civilization Initiative (GCI) initiated by China. As Nepal has participated in the US ‘Summit for Democracy’; which mainly focused on labelling China as “autocratic”. Mainly the US is tending Nepal to be a part of the Indo-Pacific strategy Nepal now need to clear the position of non-align in International relation. But, seem it is a major challenge for the New foreign minister. He should lead the ministry keeping in mind relations with the two neighbours, powers, development partners, and other friendly countries. This article is initially published in the Asia Live.

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थप बिग्रिँदै चीन-अमेरिका सम्बन्ध : हार्ने खेल खेल्ने दुवै देश तयार छैनन्, तर किन बढ्दै छ तनाव?

सांघाई : अमेरिकी आकाशमा चिनियाँ ‘स्पाइ बेलुन’को उपस्थितिलाई लिएर अमेरिकाले आफ्ना विदेश मन्त्री एन्टोनी ब्लिंकनको आसन्न बेइजिङ भ्रमणलाई स्थगित गर्‍यो। यसले दुई देशबिचको सम्बन्धमा थप तिक्तता उत्पन्न गरेको छ।  यसका बाबजुद पनि अमेरिकी विदेश मन्त्रीले बेइजिङ भ्रमण गरेको भए पनि यसले दुई देशबिचको सम्बन्धमा कति सकरात्मक प्रभाव पार्थ्यो होला? चर्चाहरु सुरु भएका छन्। बेइजिङका कुटनीतिज्ञहरु पनि अहिलेकै अवस्थामा ब्लिंकनको बेइजिङ भ्रमण भएको भए पनि त्यसबाट कुनै उपलब्धी दिन नसक्ने बताउन थालेका छन्।  विशेष गरि चीनविरुद्ध वासिङटनका पछिल्ला गतिविधि बढ्दै जाँदा अमेरिकी विदेश मन्त्री ब्लिंकनको बेइजिङ भ्रमण अनुपयुक्त रहेको बेइजिङका एक कुटनीतिज्ञले बताएका छन्। ‘उल्फ वारियर’को रुपमा चर्चित फ्रान्सका लागि चीनका राजदूत लु साहयले वासिङटनले बेइजिङलाई उक्साइरहेको अवस्थामा उनको भ्रमण उपलब्धीबिहिन हुने थियो भन्दै प्रतिक्रिया दिएका हुन्।  फ्रान्सको एक टेलिभिजन च्यानललाई अन्तर्वार्ता दिँदै उनले पछिल्ला केही वर्षहरुमा चीन र अमेरिकाबिच आपसी विश्वास घट्दै गएकोसमेत बताएका छन्। ‘अनुत्तरदायी गतिविधिका कारण यो समयमा ब्लिंकनको भ्रमण उपयुक्त पनि थिएन,’ उनले भनेका छन्, ‘मेरो विचारमा यो तथाकथित भ्रमण नै अनुपयुक्त हो। किनभने पछिल्लो समय अमेरिकाले सैन्य, वैज्ञानिक र ताइवानको मुद्दामा चीनविरुद्ध धेरै काम गरेको छ। उदाहरणका लागि :सैन्य रूपमा, अमेरिकीहरूले जापान र दक्षिण कोरिया जस्ता एसियाली देशहरूलाई चीनको सामना गर्न सैन्य मुख्यालय निर्माण गर्न भेला गरेको छ। उनीहरूले फिलिपिन्समा सैन्य अखडाहरूको संख्या बढाएको छ।’ उनले आगामी अप्रिलमा अमेरिकी सभामुखले ताइवानको भ्रमण गर्ने कुरा आएको बताउँदै यी सबैले चीनको हित उल्लंघन गर्ने बताएका छन्। फ्रान्स स्थित चिनियाँ दूतावासले जारी गरेको अन्तर्वाताको लिखित संस्करणमा उनले भनेका छन् : चीन सरकारले अमेरिकी प्रशासन र संसदलाई यस प्रकारको चीन विरोधी गतिविधि नगर्न धेरै पटक अनुरोध गरिसकेको छ। तर, उनीहरूले हाम्रो कुरा सुनेका छैनन्। त्यसैले मलाई लाग्छ, ब्लिन्केन चीन आए पनि यसले सकारात्मक भूमिका निर्वाह गर्दैन। राष्ट्रपति सी चिनफिङ र राष्ट्रपति बाइडनबिच जी-२० शिखर सम्मेलनका क्रममा भएको सहमतिलाई मूर्तरूप दिन भेटवार्ता भएपछि उनको भ्रमण तय भएको हो। तर उनको भ्रमणअघि नै अमेरिकाले ती सहमति तोडेको थियो। त्यसोभए उनको भ्रमणको अर्थ के हो?’ उनले भ्रमण सफल हुनका लागि दुबै पक्षको तयारी र सहभागिता हुनुपर्ने बताउँदै चीनले कहिल्यै पनि भ्रमणको मिति सार्वजनिक नगरेको बताएका छन्। यता, विश्लेषकहरुले पनि ब्लिंकन वास्तवमै बेइजिङ आउन चाहन्थे भन्नेमा प्रश्न गरेका छन्। सांघाई स्थित इस्ट चाइना नर्मल युनिभर्सिटीको स्कुल अफ पोलिटिक्स एण्ड इन्टरनेशनल रिलेसनका प्रध्यापक जोसेफ माहोनी ‘स्पाइ बेलुन’ बाहना मात्र भएको दाबी गर्छन्।  ‘मलाई लाग्दैन कि अमेरिका साँच्चै ब्लिंकनको बेइजिङ भ्रमण चाहन्थ्यो। मलाई लाग्दैन कि गत वर्ष बालीमा जी २० साइडलाइनमा बाइडेन सिसँग भेट गर्न चाहन्थे। मार्कोन (फ्रान्सेली राष्ट्रपति) र स्कोल्ज (जर्मन चान्सलर)को बेइजिङ प्रतिको सकारात्मक पहुँचका कारण बाइडेन भेट्न बाध्य भएका थिए,’ उनी भन्छन्। माहोनी बेलुनलाई एक हप्तासम्म अमेरिकी आकाशमा उड्न दिएको घटनाले पनि वास्तवमै बेलुन अमेरिकाको लागि सुरक्षाको खतरा थिएन भन्ने पुष्टि हुने दाबी गर्छन्। ‘बेलुनलाई खसाल्न ढिलाइ गर्नुले पनि के पुष्टि गर्छ भने ह्वाइट हाउस र त्यहाँको सैनिक पनि यो (बेलुन)अमेरिकाको लागि खतरा होइन भन्ने निष्कर्षमा नै थियो,’ उनी भन्छन्, ‘यदी खतरा नै थियो भन्ने लाग्छ भने उनीहरुले तत्काल नै खसाल्ने थिए।’ चीनका लागि फ्रान्सेली राजदूत लुले पनि सुरुमा बेइजिङको स्पष्टिकरणलाई वासिङ्टनले स्वीकार गरेको दाबी गर्छन्। उनले अमेरिका भित्रको चीन विरोधी विचार हावी हुँदा अमेरिकाको आन्तरिक राजनीतिकै कारण ढिलाइ गरि खसालिएको समेत दाबी गरेका छन्।  उनले बेलुनका अवशेषहरु अमेरिकाले चीनलाई फिर्ता दिनुपर्नेसमेत माग गरेका छन्। चिनियाँ विदेश मन्त्रालयले पनि यसतर्फ संकेत गरेको छ। मंगलवारको नियमित पत्रकार सम्मेलनमा ‘के चीनले अमेरिकालाई गोली हानेको बेलुनको भग्नावशेष फिर्ता गर्न भनेको छ?’ भनि सोधिएको प्रश्नमा विदेश मन्त्रालयकी प्रवक्ता माओ निङले भनेकी छन् : ‘यो हवाई जहाज अमेरिकाको होइन। यो चीनको हो। बेलुनले कुनै पनि व्यक्ति वा अमेरिकाको राष्ट्रिय सुरक्षामा कुनै खतरा उत्पन्न नगरेको दाबी गर्दै उनले थप भनिन्, ‘अमेरिकाले बल प्रयोग नगर्ने गरि शान्त र व्यावसायिक तरिकाले यस्ता घटनाहरूको उचित व्यवस्थापन गर्नुपर्थ्यो। तैपनि उनीहरूले अन्यथा गर्ने निर्णय गरे, जुन स्पष्ट अतिप्रतिक्रिया हो।’ आक्रमक बाइडेन प्रशासन  यसैबिच अमेरिकी राष्ट्रपति जो बाइडेनले आफ्नो प्रशासनले चीनलाई कडा टक्कर दिएको दाबी गरेका छन्। बुधवार (स्थानीय समय अनुसार मंगलवार) संसदमा सम्बोधन गर्दै उनले यस्तो दाबी गरेका हुन्।  ‘म कार्यालयमा आउनु भन्दा अगाडि जनवादी गणतन्त्र चीन आफ्नो शक्ति बढाइरहेको थियो र अमेरिका विश्वमा खस्किरहेको थियो,’ उनले भनेका छन्, ‘अब त्यस्तो छैन।’ उनले चिनियाँ राष्ट्रपति सिलाई आफू द्वन्द्व नभई प्रतिस्पर्धा चाहेको स्पष्ट रुपमा भनेको बताएका छन्। उनले ७३ मिनेट लामो भाषणमा ६ पटक चीनको नाम लिँदै अमेरिकाले मात्र चीनको ‘मुकावाला’ गर्न सक्ने बताएका थिए।  ‘हामीले अमेरिकालाई बलियो बनाउन लगानी गरिरहेका छौं। यसमा मैले कुनै क्षमा माग्ने छैन,’ उनले भनेका छन्, ‘अमेरिकी नविनता र उद्योगमा लागनीले भविष्यलाई परिभाषित गर्नेछ र यसमा चीन सरकारको हैकम छ।’ उनले दशकमै चीनसँग प्रतिस्पर्धाका लागि आफूहरु बलियो अवस्थामा भएको दाबीसमेत गरेका छन्। ‘म अमेरिकी स्वार्थ र विश्वको फाइदाका लागि चीनसँग काम गर्न प्रतिवद्ध छु,’ उनले भनेका छन्, ‘तर यसमा कुनै गल्ती हुने छैन। हामीले गत साता पनि स्पष्ट पारिसकेका छौैं। यदी चीनले हाम्रो सार्वभौमिकतालाई चुनौती दिए हामी हाम्रो देश बचाउन जे पनि गर्नेछौं। र हामीले गर्‍यौं पनि।’ उनले चीनविरुद्ध जितका लागि हुने प्रतिस्पर्धाले आफूहरुलाई एक बनाउनेसमेत बताए। उनको यो सम्बोधन अगाडि अमेरिका स्थित चिनियाँ दूतावासका चार्ज दी अफेयर्सले अमेरिकी विदेश मन्त्रालय र ह्वाइट हाउसको राष्ट्रिय सुरक्षा परिषयदका अधिकारीहरुलाई बेलुन खसालिएको विषयमा चीनको धराणा राखेका थिए।  यसैबिच अमेरिकी राष्ट्रपतिको सम्बोधन पछि चिनियाँ विदेश मन्त्रालयले चीन प्रतिष्पर्धाबाट पछि नहट्ने स्पष्ट पारेको छ। मन्त्रालयकी प्रवक्ता माओ निङले नियमित पत्रकार सम्मेलनमा भनेकी छन्, ‘चीन प्रतिस्पर्धाबाट पछि हट्दैन र हट्ने छैन। यद्यपि, हामी सम्पूर्ण चीन-अमेरिकी सम्बन्धलाई प्रतिस्पर्धाका आधारमा परिभाषित गर्ने पक्षमा छैनौं।’ उनले चीनले आफ्नो सार्वभौमिकता, सुरक्षा र विकासका हितको दृढतापूर्वक रक्षा गर्ने बताएकी छिन्। ‘अमेरिकाले चीनलाई वस्तुपरक र तार्किक दृष्टिले हेर्नुपर्छ, सकारात्मक र व्यावहारिक चीन नीति अवलम्बन गर्नुपर्छ र चीन-अमेरिका सम्बन्धलाई सुदृढ र स्थिर विकासको ट्रयाकमा फर्काउन चीनसँग मिलेर काम गर्नुपर्छ,’ उनले भनेकी छन्। प्रवक्ता माओले अमेरिकाले ‘चाइना थ्रेट’को कथालाई अतिरञ्जित पारिरहेको आरोप लगाउँदै यसले दुई देशबिच विश्वास निर्माण र सम्बन्ध सुधार हुन नसक्ने र अमेरिकालाई समेत सुरक्षित नबनाउने बताइन्।   दुई देशबिच बढ्दो तनाव  यता चिनियाँ विश्लेषकहरुले ‘चाइना थ्रेट थ्योरी’को प्रयोग गर्दै अमेरिका रक्षा बजेट बढाउने तर्फ लागेको विश्लेषण गरेका छन्। यसअघि अमेरिकी चार तारे जर्नेलले चीनसँग २०२५ भित्र युद्धको सामाना गर्नुपर्ने भन्दै तयार हुनुपर्ने आन्तरिक ‘मेमो’ जारी गरेका थिए। अमेरिकी सेनाले कंग्रेसलाई चीनसँग धेरै ‘ल्याण्ड बेस इन्टरकन्टिनेन्टल रेन्ज मिसाइलद लन्चर’ भएको रिपोर्ट गरेको र यो पछिल्लो डिबेट अमेरिकाले कसरी त्यसलाई प्रतिक्रिया दिन्छ भन्नेमा केन्द्रीत भएको वालस्ट्रिट जर्नललाई उदृत गर्दै ग्लोवल टाइम्सले भनेको छ। यता युएस मरिन कर्पका पूर्व इन्टेलिजेन्स अफिसर स्कट रिटरले अमेरिकी राजनीतिज्ञहरुले चीनको भय देखाउँदै चीन विरोधी गतिविधिमा जनताको समर्थन खोजिरहेको बताएका छन्।  ग्लोबल टाइम्ससँगको एक अन्तर्वार्ताका क्रममा उनले अमेरिकाले यस्तै भय इराकमा सद्दाम हुसेनको नाममा देखाएको बताए। त्यस्तै रसियनविरुद्ध र

थप बिग्रिँदै चीन-अमेरिका सम्बन्ध : हार्ने खेल खेल्ने दुवै देश तयार छैनन्, तर किन बढ्दै छ तनाव? Read More »

के चीन हेर्ने अमेरिकी दृष्टिबाट मुक्त हुन खोज्दैछ युरोपियन युनियन?

सांघाई : पछिल्ला दुई साता चीनले युरोपियन युनियन (इयू)का नेताहरूलाई स्वागत गर्‍यो। फ्रान्सेली राष्ट्रपति इमानुएल म्याक्रोन, युरोपियन कमिसनका अध्यक्ष उर्सुला भोन डेर लेयेनलाई गत साता बेइजिङमा स्वागत गरेको चीनले त्यसको अघिल्लो साता मात्र स्पेनका प्रधानमन्त्री पेड्रो सान्चेजलाई राजकीय पाहुनाका रूपमा स्वागत गरेको थियो। स्पेनका प्रधानमन्त्री सान्चेजले चीनको बोआओ फोरम फर एसियाको वार्षिक सम्मेलनमा भाग लिएर चीनको राजकीय भ्रमण सुरु गरेका थिए। दुई देशले यस वर्ष कूटनीतिक सम्बन्ध स्थापना भएको ५०औँ वर्षगाँठ मनाउँदै छन्। स्पेनले आगामी जुलाईबाट काउन्सिल अफ युरोपियन युनियनको अध्यक्षता लिँदैछ। यस्तोमा इयू-चीन सम्बन्धलाई अगाडि बढाउन स्पेनको महत्त्वपूर्ण भूमिका हुन्छ। प्रधानमन्त्री सान्चेजले बेइजिङस्थित ग्रेट हल अफ पिपल्समा राष्ट्रपति सि चिनफिङसँग भेटका क्रममा युक्रेन संकटको राजनीतिक समाधानमा चीनले सार्वजनिक गरेको दस्तावेजलाई सकारात्मक रूपमा लिएको र युक्रेन संकटको राजनीतिक समाधानमा चीनको रचनात्मक भूमिकाको सराहना गरेका थिए। उनले स्पेन चीनसँग स्पष्ट सञ्चार र संवाद कायम राख्न इच्छुक रहेको बताएका थिए। यस्तै, स्पेनले इयूको आलोपालो अध्यक्षता सम्हाल्ने क्रममा र इयू र चीनबीच संवाद र सहयोगलाई बढवा दिने प्रतिबद्धता पनि उनले जनाएका थिए। सान्चेजको चीन भ्रमणपछि फ्रान्सका राष्ट्रपति इमानुएल म्याक्रोँ र युरोपेली आयोगका अध्यक्ष उर्सुला भोन डेर लेयेनले पनि बेइजिङको भ्रमण गरे। त्यसअघि गत वर्षको अन्त्यतिर जर्मन चान्सलर ओलाफ स्कोल्जले बेइजिङको भ्रमण गरेका थिए। गत वर्ष अक्टोबरमा चिनियाँ कम्युनिस्ट पार्टी सीपीसीको २०औं राष्ट्रिय महाधिवेशनपछि बेइजिङ भ्रमण गर्ने उनी पहिलो युरोपेली नेता हुन्। त्यसपछि युरोपियन काउन्सिलका अध्यक्ष चार्ल्स मिचेल चीन पुगे। बेल्जियमका पूर्वप्रधानमन्त्रीसमेत रहेका मिचेलले चीनसँगको सम्बन्धलाई इयूले प्राथमिकतामा राख्ने भन्दै सबै प्रकारका संवादका ‘च्यानल’लाई खुला राखिने बताएका थिए। शुक्रबार मात्र बेइजिङमा चीन-फ्रान्स र इयू त्रिपक्षीय वार्ता भयो। त्यस्तै चीन र फ्रान्सबीच द्विपक्षीय वार्ता पनि भयो। यो वर्ष चीन र युरोपेली संघबीच व्यापक रणनीतिक साझेदारी स्थापना भएको २०औं वर्षगाँठ मनाइँदै छ। यही सन्दर्भमा चीन–इयू सम्बन्धका विविध पक्षमा घनीभूत छलफललाई अगाडि बढाउनेतर्फ दुबै पक्ष अगाडि बढेका छन्। संवादका क्रममा इयू कमिसन अध्यक्ष भोन डेरले चीनसँगको खुला र रचनात्मक संवाद र युरोपेली संघ-चीन सम्बन्धको निरन्तर विकास युरोपमा शान्ति र स्थिरताका लागि महत्त्वपूर्ण रहेको बताइन्। यस क्रममा उनले इयूले आफ्नो चीन नीतिलाई स्वतन्त्र रूपमा निर्धारण गर्ने कुरालाई स्पष्ट पारेकी थिइन्। अध्यक्ष भोन डेरले इयू चीनसँग उच्चस्तरीय आर्थिक तथा व्यापार संवादलाई पुनः सुरु गर्न र पारस्परिक लाभका लागि आर्थिक तथा व्यापारिक सम्बन्धको स्थिर र सन्तुलित वृद्धिलाई अगाडि बढाउन चाहेको बताइन्। यसबीच तीनै नेताबीच युक्रेन संकटबारे पनि छलफल भयो। युरोपेली नेताहरूले युक्रेन संकटमा चीनको कुनै पनि भूमिका नभएकोप्रति सहमति मात्र जाहेर गरेनन् उनीहरूले संकट समाधानका लागि चीनले गरेको प्रयासको प्रशंसा गरे। दुवै पक्षले शुक्रबार एक संयुक्त घोषणापत्र जारी गर्दै राजनीतिक संवाद बढाउने र राजनीतिक पारस्परिक विश्वास बढाउने, संयुक्त रूपमा विश्वव्यापी सुरक्षा र स्थिरतालाई बढवा दिने, आर्थिक आदानप्रदानलाई अगाडि बढाउने, जनता–जनताबीचको सहयोग आदानप्रदानलाई पुनः सुरु गर्ने र संयुक्त रूपमा विश्वव्यापी चुनौतीहरूको सामना गर्ने प्रतिबद्धता व्यक्त गरेका छन्। चीन र फ्रान्सका नेताहरूले औपचारिक अनौपचारिक छलफलमा जुटेर एकअर्काबीचको मतभेदलाई घटाउने प्रयास दुई दिनको संवादमार्फत गरे। बेइजिङमा औपचारिक संवाद गरेका उनीहरूले शुक्रबार दक्षिण चीनको ग्वाङडोङ प्रान्तको राजधानी ग्वाङ्जाओ पुगेर अनौपचारिक वार्ता गरे। कुनै पनि विदेशी पाहुनालाई चिनियाँ राष्ट्रपतिले बेइजिङबाहिर भेट्ने घटना बिरलै हुन्छ। यसअघि भारतीय प्रधानमन्त्री मोदीसँग पनि यस्तै अनौपचारिक संवाद बेइजिङबाहिर भएको थियो। यसपटक राष्ट्रपति सि फ्रान्सका राष्ट्रपति म्याक्रोनलाई लिएर ग्वाङ्जाओ पुगे। फ्रान्स युरोपेली युनियन भित्रको शक्तिशाली देश हो। अझ ब्रेक्जिटपछि फ्रान्सको शक्ति बढेको छ, इयूमा। अर्कोतर्फ फ्रान्स नाटोको सदस्य भए पनि अमेरिकासँग केही विषयमा असहमति राख्न सक्छ र राखेको इतिहास पनि छ। इराकमाथिको अमेरिकी आक्रमणका क्रममा अमेरिकी आग्रहमा फ्रान्सले आफ्ना सेना पठाउन अस्वीकार गरेको थियो। अमेरिकाले चीनलाई युक्रेन मामिलामा रसियालाई सहयोग गरेको आरोप लगाउँदै आएको छ। युक्रेन संकटपछि युरोपेली युनियनले पनि रसियामाथि प्रतिबन्धनको शृङ्खला नै चलाएको छ। युक्रेन संकटपछि अमेरिकासहितका युरोपेली राष्ट्रहरूले युक्रेनलाई हतियार तथा सैन्य सामाग्री सहयोग गरिरहेका छन्। अहिले युरोपेली नेताहरूको बेइजिङसँगको निरन्तरको संवाद र सम्पर्कले इयू युक्रेन संकटको समाधान चाँडो चाहन्छन् भन्ने देखाउँछ। किनकि रसियामाथिको प्रतिबन्ध लगाउँदा यसको असर युरोपेली राष्ट्रहरूमा पनि उत्तिकै परेको छ। युरोपेली नेताको यो भ्रमणलगत्तै इयूका विदेश नीति प्रमुख जोसेप बोरेल र जर्मनीकी विदेशमन्त्री एनालेना बेयरबोक पनि अप्रिलभित्रै बेइजिङको भ्रमण गर्ने तयारीमा छन्। यसरी लगातार युरोपेली नेताहरूलाई बेइजिङले स्वागत गर्नुले दुवै पक्षबीचको सम्बन्धमा सकारात्मक प्रभाव पर्नेछ। चीन र इयूबीच प्रतिस्पर्धा रहे पनि उनीहरूले प्रतिस्पर्धात्मक सहकार्यलाई जोड दिएका छन्। बितेका केही वर्षहरूयता, चीन-इयू सम्बन्धले केही कठिन समयको सामना गरिरहेको छ। चीनले चुनौतीको रूपमा लिने अमेरिकाको प्रभाव इयूमा पर्दा सम्बन्धमा असर परेको थियो। अर्कोतिर युक्रेन संकटमा रसियाको सामना गर्न अमेरिकाले युरोपेली राष्ट्रहरूलाई पनि आफ्नै पक्षमा पारेपछि पछिल्लो समय सम्बन्ध झनै बिग्रिएको थियो। जि-२० सम्मेलनका क्रममा बालीमा राष्ट्रपति सि र युरोपेली नेताहरुबीचको भेटपछि सम्बन्धमा सुधार हुँदै गएको छ। साथै चिनियाँ कम्युनिस्ट पार्टीका पोलिटब्युरो सदस्य तथा केन्द्रीय समितिको विदेश मामिला आयोगको कार्यालयका निर्देशक वाङ यीको फेब्रुअरीमा भएको युरोप भ्रमणले चीन र इयूलाई थप नजिक ल्याएको हो। म्युनिख सुरक्षा सम्मेलनमा भाग लिन युरोप पुगेका उनले फ्रान्ससँग इटली, जर्मनी, हंगेरी र रसियाकोसमेत भ्रमण गरेका थिए। त्यतिबेला नै उनले फ्रान्सेली राष्ट्रपतिसहित युरोपेली नेताहरूसँग भेट गरेका थिए। पटक-पटक चीनले जोड दिँदै आएको छ कि चीन-इयू सम्बन्धमा कुनै पनि बाह्य प्रभाव पर्नु हुँदैन। तर, पनि पछिल्ला केही वर्ष इयूको चीनसम्बन्धी नीतिमा अमेरिकी प्रभाव देखिँदै आएको थियो। तर, पछिल्लो समय इयू चीनसम्बन्धी नीतिमा अमेरिकी प्रभावबाट टाढिन खोजेको छ। यसलाई पुष्टि युरोपेली नेताहरूको पछिल्ला चीन भ्रमणलाई लिन सकिन्छ। यसबाहेक, इयू नेताहरू नयाँ शीतयुद्ध चाहँदैनन्। किनभने त्यसको ठूलो मार युरोपेली राष्ट्रहरूमै पर्नेछ। युक्रेन मामिलामा अमेरिकाले संवादलाई भन्दा पनि युद्धलाई प्राथमिकतामा राखेको छ। आफ्नै छिमेकमा युद्ध हुँदा यसको प्रभाव युरोपमा पर्ने नै भयो। युरोपको अर्थतन्त्रमा त्यसको प्रभाव देखिसकेको छ। अहिले नै पनि रसियामाथिको नाकाबन्दीको असर युरोपेली बजारमा परेको छ। त्यसैले इयू युक्रेन मामिलामा अमेरिकासँगै उभिरहन सक्ने स्थिति छैन। अर्कोतर्फ जलवायु परिवर्तनलगायतका मुद्दाहरुमा चीन र इयू सँगै एउटै मञ्चमा उभिएका छन्। क्षेत्रीय र विश्व शान्ति कायम गर्ने, जलवायु परिवर्तन र आणविक प्रसारको सामना गर्ने, विश्वव्यापी शासन सुधार गर्ने र विश्वव्यापी विकासलाई बढवा दिने जस्ता साझा चुनौतीहरूको सामना गर्न चीन र इयूबीचको प्रतिस्पर्धात्मक साझेदारीले महत्त्वपूर्ण भूमिका खेल्न सक्छ। अत: पछिल्ला संवाद र बढेको कूटनीतिक सम्पर्कहरूले युरोपियन युनियन चीनसम्बन्धी नीतिमा अमेरिकी प्रभावबाट मुक्त हुन खोजेको देखिन्छ।

के चीन हेर्ने अमेरिकी दृष्टिबाट मुक्त हुन खोज्दैछ युरोपियन युनियन? Read More »

चीन-अमेरिका चिप वार : के सेमिकन्डक्टर उत्पादनको नेतृत्व अमेरिकाले गर्न सक्ला?

सांघाई : गत साता मात्र अमेरिकी अर्थमन्त्री जानेट एलनले बेइजिङको भ्रमण गरी दुई देशबिचको व्यापार युद्धलाई मत्थर गर्ने प्रयास गरिन्। तर दुई देशबिचको व्यापार टकराव अहिले नै मत्थर हुने संकेतहरु भने देखिएका छैनन्। चिनियाँ अर्थतन्त्रलाई नियन्त्रणमा राख्नका लागि अमेरिकाले ‘चाइना डि-कपल’को नीति अंगिकार गरिरहेको छ। अमेरिकी नीतिको विरोध तथा आलोचना अमेरिकी व्यापारिक तथा व्यावसायिक क्षेत्रले गरिरहेको छ। अर्कोतर्फ अमेरिकी साझेदार युरोपियन युनियनले पनि ‘डि-कपल’को नीतिलाई आलोचना मात्र गरेको छैन, उसले ‘डि-रिस्क’को नीतिलाई अगाडि बढाउने बताएको छ। गत महिना मात्र जापानमा सम्पन्न जी-७ को बैठकले ‘डि-कपल’को नीतिलाई अस्वीकार गर्दै ‘डि-रिस्क’को नीति अंगाल्ने सहमति गरेको थियो। अर्कोतर्फ जुनको अन्त्यमा चीनको थियानचीनमा भएको समर डाभोस (वर्ल्ड इकोनमिक फोरम)मा सहभागी विभिन्न देशका नेतृत्व तथा व्यावसयिक प्रतिनिधिहरुले ‘डि-कपल’ र ‘डि-रिस्क’को नीतिको आलोचना गरे। यसरी आलोचना गर्नेमा अमेरिकी नेतृत्वको ‘फाइभ आइज अलायन्स’ र ‘एंग्लो-साक्सन राष्ट्र’हरुको सदस्य न्युजिल्याण्ड पनि थियो। जम्बो व्यावसायिक प्रतिनिधि टोलीको नेतृत्व गर्दै चीन पुगेका न्युजिल्याण्डका प्रधानमन्त्री क्रिस हिपकिन्सले अमेरिकी राष्ट्रपति जो बाइडेनको चिनियाँ राष्ट्रपति सि चिनफिङप्रतिको ‘अधिनायक’को संज्ञालाई अस्वीकार मात्र गरेनन्, उनले चिनियाँ प्रणाली चिनियाँ जनताको विषय भएको बताए। समर डाभोस फोरमले आर्थिक मन्दीको जोखिम न्यूनीकरण, विश्वव्यापी आर्थिक पुनरुत्थान र वृद्धिका लागि सम्वाद र सहकार्यको खाँचो औँल्याउँदै ‘डि-कपल’ र ‘डि-रिस्क’ नीतिको आलोचना गर्‍यो। विश्व अर्थतन्त्र एकाआपसमा गाँसिएकाले ‘डि-कपल’ र ‘डि-रिस्क’ गलत प्रस्ताव भएको निष्कर्ष निकाल्यो। सो मिटमा विश्व व्यापार संगठनका महानिर्देशक नोगोजी ओकोन्जो-इवेलाल विश्वलाई दुई व्यापारिक ब्लकमा विभाजित गरिए यसले दीर्घकालीन रूपमा विश्वव्यापी जीडीपी पाँच प्रतिशतले खुम्चिने र विकासशील देश दोहोरो अंकको नोक्सानीको साथ सबैभन्दा ठूलो शिकार हुने भन्दै विखण्डनको कुरा संसारले सहन नसक्ने बताए। त्यति मात्र होइन विश्वका व्यावसयी नेतृत्वले निरन्तर रुपमा बेइजिङको भ्रमण गरी बेइजिङप्रति सदासयतासमेत देखाइरहेका छन्। के हो अमेरिकी डि-कपल नीति? विश्व अर्थतन्त्रमा अमेरिकालाई टक्कर दिइरहेको चीनको आर्थिक विकासलाई रोक्न अमेरिकाले चीन प्रति ‘डि-कपल’को नीति अंगिकार गरेको छ। विशेषगरी यो ‘डि-कपल’ चिनियाँ सेमिकन्डक्टर क्षेत्रलाई लक्षित छ। चीनमा उत्पादन हुने प्रविधि क्षेत्रमा प्रयोग हुने माइक्रो चिप्स सेमिकन्डकटरमाथि प्रतिबन्ध लगाएर अमेरिकाले सेमिकन्डक्टर उद्योगमा ठूलो लगानी गर्दै उद्योग स्थापनाको लक्ष्य लिएको छ। अमेरिकी वाणिज्यमन्त्री गिना राइमोन्डोसहितका हाइटेक नेसनालिस्टहरुले सेमिकन्डक्टर क्षेत्रमा फड्को मार्दै चीनलाई माथ दिने नीति लिएका छन्। गत फेब्रुअरीमा राइमोन्डोले अमेरिकी जर्जटाउन युनिभर्सिटीको एक कार्यक्रममा भनेकी थिइन्- म चाहन्छु कि संयुक्त राज्य अमेरिका विश्वको एक मात्र देश होस् जहाँ अग्रणी- चिप्स उत्पादन गर्न सक्षम प्रत्येक कम्पनीसँग महत्त्वपूर्ण आर एन्ड डी (रिसर्च एण्ड डेभलभमेन्ट) र उच्च-मात्रामा विनिर्माण उपस्थिति हुनेछ। नेतृत्व गर्नु अमेरिकाको दायित्व हो। हामीले यसअघि भन्दा धक्का दिनै पर्छ। गत वर्ष अक्टोबरमा अमेरिकी ब्युरो अफ इन्डस्ट्री एण्ड सेक्युरिटीले १३९ पृष्ठ लामो दस्तावेज सार्वजनिक गर्दै चीनसँगको ‘व्यापार युद्ध’लाई घोषणा गर्ने तहसम्म पुर्‍याएको थियो। अमेरिकी प्रशासनको १२ ब्युरोमध्ये सानो ब्युरोले जारी गरेको यो दस्तावेजले चीनसँगको व्यापार युद्धलाई चर्काउँदै लगेको थियो। शित युद्ध ताका यही ब्युरोले सोभियत युनियन ब्लकबाट हुने आयात निर्यातमा नियन्त्रण राख्थ्यो। शित युद्धको अन्त्य तथा सोभियत युनियन विघटनपछि गौण जस्तै बनेको यो ब्युरो फेरी सक्रिय भएको छ। त्यतिबेला अमेरिकी निर्यात प्रशासन हेर्ने सहायक वाणिज्य मन्त्री म्याट बोर्मनले भनेका थिए- हामीले रुसमाथिको प्रतिबन्ध कार्यान्यवनमा हाम्रो सत प्रतिशत समय दिन्छौँ। अर्को सतप्रतिशत चीनप्रति र बाँकी सत प्रतिशत अन्य क्षेत्रमा। पछिल्लो समय सेमिकन्डक्टर ब्युरोको कार्यक्षेत्र मध्येको प्रमुख बनेको छ। चिप्स तथा सेमिकन्डक्टर आधुनिक अर्थतन्त्रको जीवनरेखा बनेको छ। हरेको विद्युतीय उपकरण तथा प्रणालीहरुको दिमागको रुपमा रहेको सेमिकन्डक्टर आइफोनदेखि टोस्टरसम्म, डेटा सेन्टरदेखि क्रेडिट कार्डसम्ममा प्रयोग हुन्। हाल उत्पादन हुने नयाँ कारहरुमा हजारभन्दा बढी चिप्ससम्मको प्रयोग हुन्छ। यही आधुनिक अर्थतन्त्रको मेरुदण्डको रुपमा रहेको सेमिकन्डक्टर चिप्सको प्रमुख उत्पादक चीनलाई लक्षित गर्दै बाइडेन प्रशासनले गत वर्ष अक्टोबर ७ मा चिनियाँ उत्पादन र खरिदमा नियन्त्रण राख्ने लक्ष्यसहितको नीति सार्वजनिक गरेको थियो। राष्ट्रिय सुरक्षाको नाममा लिइएको यो नीति सुरक्षाप्रति केन्द्रित भन्दा पनि अमेरिकाको लक्ष्य चिनियाँ एआई उद्योगमाथि प्रभाव पार्ने हो। यसको लक्ष्य चिनियाँ आधुनिक प्रविधि ‘इकोसिस्टम’ ध्वस्त पार्नु हो। कतिपयले अमेरिकी एआई वैज्ञानिकहरुले अमेरिकाको यो नीतिलाई रुसले युक्रेनमाथि हमला गरेको नीतिसँग जोडेका छन्। सिनियर सेमिकन्डक्टर एनालिस्ट सीजे मुसेलाई उदृत गर्दै  न्युयोर्क टाइम्सको एक आलेखमा यो कदमलाई ‘एक्ट अफ अ वार’को संज्ञा दिइएको छ। अमेरिकी नीति सफल भए चीनको नयाँ पुस्तालाई अपांग बनाउने र असफल भए अमेरिकाले ठूलो क्षति व्यहोर्ने बताएका छन्। ‘२०२२ मा दुई मितिले विश्व इतिहासलाई तरंगीत पार्ने छन्’, सो आलेखमा वासिंङ्टनस्थित सेन्टर फर स्ट्राटेजी एण्ड इन्टरनेशनल स्टडिजको वाडवानी सेन्टर फर एआई एण्ड  एडभान्स टेक्नोलोजीका निर्देशकलाई उदृत गरिएको छ, ‘पहिलो फेब्रुअरी २४, जब रुसले अमेरिकामाथि आक्रमण गर्‍यो र दोस्रो अक्टोवर ७।’ विशेषगरी यो चिप्स वार ट्रम्प प्रशासनको पालादेखि सुरु भएको थियो। सन् २०१९ मा ट्रम्प प्रशासनले चिनियाँ प्रमुख टेलिकम्युनिकेसन उत्पादक हुवावेमाथि प्रतिबन्धको घोषणा गर्‍यो। सन् २०२० को मेमा ट्रम्प प्रशासनले यो प्रतिबन्धलाई थप कडाइ गर्‍यो। त्यसैको निरन्तरता स्वरुप बाइडेन प्रशासनको २०२२ अक्टोबर ७ को घोषणा हो। अमेरिकी नीतिको प्रभाव अमेरिकी नीतिको प्रभाव चिनियाँ सेमिकन्डक्टर उद्योमा मात्र नभई अमेरिकी टेक उत्पादकमा पनि परेको छ। क्यालिफोर्नियास्थित विश्वकै सबैभन्दा ठूलोमध्येको एक सेमिकन्डक्टर कम्पनी एनभीडियाको व्यापार गिर्दो देखिएको छ। फेब्रुअरीसम्मको पछिल्लो १२ महिनामा कम्पनीको चीन र हङ्कङबाट हुने व्यापारमा २० प्रतिशतले कमी आएको छ। कम्पनीका सीइओ जेनसन हुवाङले कम्पनीको उत्पादनलाई चिनियाँ बजारसम्मको पहुँचमा प्रतिबन्ध लगाउने हो भने यसले अमेरिकी टेक उद्योगलाई ठूलो क्षति पुग्ने बताएका छन्। उनले अमेरिकी नीतिले कम्पनीको ठूलो बजारमा उत्पादन बेच्न नपाएको भन्दै ‘हाम्रा हात हाम्रै पछाडि बाँधिएका छन्’ भन्ने टिप्पणी गरेका छन्। आफूहरुले चिप्स चिनियाँ कम्पनीलाई नबेचे चिनियाँ कम्पनीले आफैले नै चिप्स उत्पादन गर्दै आफूहरुसँग प्रतिस्पर्धा गर्ने बताएका छन्। ‘यदी चीनले अमेरिकाबाट खरिद गर्न नपाउने हो भने उनीहरु आफैले उत्पादन गर्नेछन्’, उनले भनेका छन्, ‘त्यसैले पनि अमेरिका सावधान हुनुपर्छ। चीन प्रविधि उद्योगका लागि महत्त्वपूर्ण बजार हो।’ यसको उदाहरण हुवावेलाई लिन सकिन्छ। जब अमेरिकाले हुवावेमाथि प्रतिबन्ध लगायो। त्यसै अनुरुप गुगलले हुवावेमा एन्ड्रोड अपरेटिङ सिस्टम प्रयोगमा प्रतिबन्ध लगायो। त्यससँगै हुवावेले आफ्नै अपरेटिङ सिस्टम हार्मोनी ओएस सार्वजनिक गर्‍यो। अमेरिकाले ‘डि-कपल’को नीतिलाई अगाडि बढाउँदै साझेदारहरुलाई पनि आफ्नो क्याम्पमा तान्ने प्रयास गरेको छ। जसमध्ये नेदरल्याण्ड्सले चीनसँगको सेमिकन्डक्टरको व्यापारमा नियन्त्रणको नीति लिएको छ। त्यस्तै, जापानी सेमिकन्डक्टर उत्पादकले पनि सप्लाइ चेनलाई विविधिकरण गर्दै चीनबाहिर केन्द्रित हुन थालेका छन्। अमेरिकाले चिनियाँ सेमिकन्डक्टर बजारमाथि ‘डि-कपल’को नीतिलाई अगाडि बढाउन ‘चिप्स फोर अलायन्स’ बनाउने गरी छलफललाई अगाडि बढाएको छ। यसमा अमेरिकासहित जापान, दक्षिण कोरिया र ताइवान छन्। तर यसको प्रभाव कोरियाली तथा ताइवानी सेमिकन्डक्टरमा पर्ने देखिन्छ। कोरियाली सेमिकन्डक्टर उत्पादकका लागि चीन र हङ्कङ ६० प्रतिशत हिस्सा राख्छ। त्यस्तै, ताइवानको सेमिकन्डक्टर उत्पादक ताइवान सेमिकन्डक्टर म्यानुफ्राक्टचर कम्पनी (टीएएमसी)का ९० वर्षे संस्थापक मोरिस चङले अमेरिकी कदमप्रति लक्षित गर्दै ‘विश्वव्यापीकरण र खुला व्यापार’ लगभग मृत भइसकेको टिप्पणी गरेका थिए। चिनियाँ प्रतिक्रिया गत साता मात्र अमेरिकी अर्थमन्त्रीलाई स्वागत गरेको बेइजिङले सोही साता नै अमेरिकी प्रतिबन्दको प्रतिरोधस्वरुप नयाँ निर्यात प्रमाणपत्र प्रणालीको घोषणा गरेको छ। जसले ग्यालियम

चीन-अमेरिका चिप वार : के सेमिकन्डक्टर उत्पादनको नेतृत्व अमेरिकाले गर्न सक्ला? Read More »

China-India Skirmishes: Hidden Warfare Of India Using Tibetan And Nepali Personal

Dhakal Bidhur In the wake of the escalating Indo-China border dispute, India has started mobilizing the Tibetan community along the border. The Special Frontier Force (SFF) has been deployed along the Tibetan community in India. The force, which has been operating as a covert, has come out openly this time. After rising tensions between India and China over the past five months, the Indian Army had announced it had ‘thwarted Chinese intentions to alter the ground situation’. The announcement has silently opened the involvement of SFF, in the operation south of Pangong Tso. With the involvement of the SFF, known as the Development Regiment and directly under the Director General of the Indian intelligence agency ‘RAW’, its role is also emerging. Not only that, the covert force this time has come into the ground. In the second week of September, Bharatiya Janata Party leader Ram Madhav attended the funeral of SFF personal Nyima Tenzin. The 2020 China-India Skirmishes, ongoing military standoff; both the troops have engaged in aggressive moves in Sino-Indian Border  including near the disputed Pangong Lake in Ladakh and Tibet Autonomous Region. Started from May this year; Chinese forces agitated to the construction of road in Galwan River Valley by Indian side. In June 15, deadly clashes between two forces resulted the death of 20 Indian soldiers. In July 25, emerges of disengagement at Galwan, Hot Spring and Gogra. Indian Army deployed more forces to the area. Though the talk between Beijing and Delhi in Moscow conclude with 5 points agreement stating that both side shall abide by all the existing agreements and protocol on China-India boundary affairs, maintain peace and tranquillity in the border areas and avoid any action that could escalate matters. But still the tension is still escalating. At the end of August, fired opened between once. In the operation of August 29-31, the involvement of SFF has been reported. India has occupied previously unoccupied heights in Chushul sector in eastern Ladakh. Indian Army has so far maintained an official silent, but the death of SFF’s Nyima has opened the secrets of SFF involvement. However, Yeshi Tenzin, father of injured SFF’s personal Tenzin Londen has told the Indian Express that his son along with his unit was involved in an operation to occupy a hill, Black top, near the south bank of Pangong Tso. This is the first time the SFF, a secretive force, has been in public eye. Although the Indian Army has not officially commented on the deaths, the presence of BJP leaders and Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s close aid Ram Madhav in the funeral of Nyima has exposed the SFF’s presence in the Indo-China dispute. It is said that Nyima had caught on a landmine in rested from 1962. After his death, huge crowd in present BJP leader had paid the honor to Nyima in Leh, Ladakh, Chanting slogans of Bharat Mata Ki Jai, Tibet Zindabad, Vikas Regiment Zindabad shows that SFF involvements in 2020 India-China Skirmishes.   The rally played a role in stirring up anti-China sentiment by influencing the Tibetan community. Ram Madhav had reached Leh for the same purpose. Earlier, no such farewell was said in the death of any SFF soldiers, nor was the general public aware of the SFF’s presence. Why was it brought out this time? Amid the border tensions, India sends strong message to China by giving fallen Tibetan soldier full military honors.  SFF men have been told to fight for Tibet rather than for India. ‘Until now we were anonymous soldiers. But now people know us. We are proud that he sacrificed his life for his motherland, Tibet,’ the Indian media quoted a soldier as saying. The incident has sent a clear message to Beijing from Delhi it will not stop playing ‘Tibet Card’. The image of Nyima’s coffin, which is covered by Indian flag and snow lion flag which is adopted by the Tibetan refugee community, is going viral on social media among the Tibetan community. Using the Tibetan community against China, India has called on it to fight its ‘real enemy’ (China). Until now, India had not openly deployed the SFF on the front line against China. What is SFF? The Special Frontier Force (SFF), which is made up of the Tibetan community, is stationed at the border. The Indian Special Forces, formed after the Sino-Indian war on November 14, 1962, had initially been conducting covert operations on the Indo-China border. Now the force has a mixture of Tibetan and Gorkhas, (i.e. Nepali) Since then, the force has been involved in the Indo-Pak war and the Bangladesh independent War. The SFF, which has been a part of Operation Blue Star, Kargil war, also had acted as Indira Gandhi’s personal force after the state of emergency. Headquartered in Uttarakhand, the force is not the part of Indian Army but function under its operational control. It was initially placed under the Intelligence Bureau of India (IB). Later, India’s external intelligence mechanism was placed under the Research and Analysis Wing (RAW). However, it has its own status and organizational structure and training structure. It is directly under the Directorate General of Security Affairs of the Cabinet. Force is led by the Inspector General (IG) who is selected from the Major General level of the Indian Army who reports directly to the Prime Minister’s Office. Initially made up of Tibetan refugees, the development battalion later became the Special Frontier Force. The organization was formed with 5,000 youths from the Khampa community in exile in India along with the Dalai Lama from Tibet. For that, the Indians had recruited the youth from the guerrilla group fighting with the Chinese People’s Liberation Army. The US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) also helped form the group. The SFF had shut down most of its operations in China, in line with Deng Xiaoping’s open economy policy. Since then, the SFF has fought the Indo-Pakistani war with the Indian Army. The SFF had fought a war against Pakistan in favor of Bangladesh in the Bangladesh Independence Campaign. Along with Tibetans,

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‘Himalayan Quad’: Western Skeptical On ‘Tran-Himalayan Cooperation’

Dhakal Bidhur Globe is fighting against the COVID-19 pandemic. The global powers are fighting themselves for geopolitical supremacy. Nepal’s geopolitical position in South Asia is considered strategically important to all. Two neighbors, China and India, want to keep Nepal aside from them. Meanwhile, for the United States, Nepal has been geography of strategic importance for South Asia. At this time, the Himalayan nation Nepal has been facing a clash between the three power Nations. Nepal, a partner of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRE) proposed by China; is working together and separately with its three friendly nations in various multilateral fora. The US is been working hard to get Nepal, a member of the BRI, to participate in its Indo-Pacific Strategy (IFS)- a defense policy. On the other hand, the US is in a way toward investment publicly in Nepal through the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC). ‘The controversial’ MCC is yet to be passed from the parliament. Together with the IFS, the US has initiated a Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) involving Japan, Australia, and India to counter Chinese influence in the region. In particular, the first virtual conference of heads of state/government was held in March this year, 14 years after the forum was first initiated by Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe as the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue. Interest of each and concern at the conference was China’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific region; and on the other hand, China’s support in the fight against COVID-19 in this area. At the same conference,US President Joe Biden announced more than a billion vaccines would be distributed in the region by the end of 2022 to reduce Chinese influence. Besides this ‘Quad’, another ‘Quad’ is in term of discussion last months in Indian and western media- ‘Himalayan Quad’ by China with its strategic partner Nepal, Pakistan, and Afghanistan. What is the Himalayan Quad and How its Starts? On the 27th of July 2020, Foreign Ministers of Afghanistan, China, Nepal, and Pakistan held a video conference on COVID-19. In the meeting chaired by Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi, Nepal, Pakistan, and Afghanistan foreign ministers were attended.  The Western and Indian media describes it as China’s ‘COVID-19 Diplomacy’. In November 2020, Indian scholar Jagannath Panda in a Journal of Analysis and Information in issue China brief published by the Jamestown Foundation called it as Trans-Himalayan ‘Quad’, and lament toward China as ‘Beijing’s Territorialism’. Indicating this quadrilateral video conference between four nations, Panda offers a new hue on it. The quadrilateral meeting focused on the enhancing Quadrilateral Corporation to encounter the COVID-19 pandemic was roasted as the security alliance and connected toward the Quad as the US, India, Japan and Australia are practicing in the Indo-Pacific region as the ‘Nato’. On April 2021, Yuri M Yarmolinsky, an analyst with the Belarusian Institute for Strategic Research and former Consular of Embassy of the Republic of Belarus to the Republic of India, in an article published in ORF Raisina Debates, noted the meeting as China’s unilateral and expansionist action in the region linking toward the increasing activity of the Quad. As the United States expands its investment in the Asia-Pacific region, Northern neighbor China has also extended a helping hand to neighboring countries. On the quadrilateral meeting ministers of Afghanistan, Pakistan and Nepal supported Wang Yi’s four-point cooperation initiative and thanked China for providing medical and food assistance, and for sharing experience on COVID-19 containment. In particular, the ministers highly commended President Xi Jinping’s initiative to make the vaccine a global public good. According to the FMPRC press release, these three nations will work with China in solidarity to deepen cooperation against COVID-19, strengthen joint response mechanisms, ensure unimpeded trade and transportation routes, facilitate personnel and trade flows, advance the “Silk Road of health”, and build a community with a shared future for mankind. Not only that FMPRC stated that these three nations will work with China to deepen Belt and Road cooperation, accelerate recovery in socio-economic and livelihood development, and promote post-COVID economic growth. This cooperation- Silk Road of Health, initiated by China is been called ‘Vaccine Diplomacy’ by Westerners. Yarmolinsky had added with SCMP this April that China already partners with Nepal, Pakistan, and Afghanistan on security and strategic cooperation. ‘Nepal is a strong foothold in the Himalayas in the context of the Sino-Indian territorial dispute, Afghanistan is a significant factor in ensuring security and maintaining stability in Xinjiang,’ he was quoted by SCMP. Beijing and Islamabad have been working on a US$62 billion connectivity and infrastructure project known as the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor – part of Beijing’s ambitious Belt and Road Initiative to grow a China-centered global trading network – and the two sides have also cooperated on tackling security challenges around their shared border. Nepal, meanwhile, receives foreign direct investment and economic aid from Beijing, which has also opened a training academy in the small Himalayan country for the paramilitary police force that guards its border with Tibet. The two nations’ armies have held counterterrorism drills together in the past, too. On a horizon, western media and experts tend to explain this cooperation as a security alliance as ‘Himalaya Quad’. In March, when the Quad leader meeting was held virtually, the Chinese and Russian Foreign ministry meet at Not only that, in March, the first meeting of the Quad was held and the Chinese and Russian foreign ministers hold the bilateral meeting in Guilin city in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region in southern China. The meeting shows the the unity against US and EU in the region. China and Russian have always followed the ‘four-point agreement on showing firm support from each other’, State Councilor Yi stated in that meeting. ‘We should uphold the universally recognized international law. China is willing to further strengthen cooperation with Russia under the multilateral frameworks, such as the United Nations, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), and BRICS, jointly safeguard multilateralism, maintain the international system with the UN at its core and the international order based on international law, while firmly opposing unilateral sanctions as well as interference in other countries internal

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Coronavirus: Does A Global Health Emergency Need To Be Politicized?

Dhakal BidhurToday, February 20th, it has been 12:15 since these words were written. Probably, I would not have been typing these words here at a computer, if the corona virus infection had not spread in China or had even become more controlled. I would fly over Chinese soil, keeping Nepal in memory from the top of Everest. There was a rumor about pneumonia like an epidemic spreading in Wuhan while I was traveling from Sichuan, China to Nepal for over a 30-days’ vacation. Little did we know, the pandemic was yet to spread. At the time, China was preparing for the New Year. 10 days after landing in Nepal, on New Year Eve a message from a Chinese friend pinged on WeChat, ‘come with plenty of masks while you return.’ Chinese New Year is the time of the largest migration period in around the world. People go to the village to visit their relatives. Travel abroad for vacation. But this year, CoronaVirus (CoViD 2019 )which originated and then traveled from Wuhan in Hubei province to the whole mainland China has been confirmed in 25 countries around the world. According to the latest data, the infection of the Novel Coronavirus has exceeded over 75,000. Only around a thousand of the cases have been confirmed out of China. In China alone, more than 2000 people are dead. Only three cases of fatality outside of China are confirmed. China is currently at wartime against the CoViD-19. All of the governmental mechanism from central to local level is deployed in this battle. China and the Chinese people have taken strict action against CoViD-19, limiting movements, realizing that the biggest asset is public health. Thousands of physicians have been deployed in Hubei alone. Doctors are campaigning frontline of the battle against the CoViD-19 day and night. Chinese efforts to control infection According to the latest data, 5 million overseas students from 199 countries are currently pursuing their studies in China and an equal number of foreigners are working there as well. The number of foreigners infected so far is low. The official data is that one of the US national deaths has been confirmed. Although there are signs of infection in Japanese citizens, it has not been confirmed that they have corona infection. China, which is on the battlefield against the CoViD-19 has kept Hubei and Wuhan in lockdown to prevent infection. The people of Wuhan have been secretly kept in quarantine. The transition is still concentrated in Wuhan. According to the latest data, among 75 thousands of confirmed cases 61 thousands is in Hubei and 43 thousands more in Wuhan alone. This is 60 percent of the total confirmed case. Province near Hubei has confirmed cases near a thousand and death tool is under single digit. China has also taken precautions to prevent the infection from spreading to the rest of the world. China is paying close attention to the safety of international students. They are housed in secure university housing. Doctors are fighting the virus by risking their lives. Millions of Chinese travel abroad during the New Year. This year, China regulated it and protected the rest of the world from the risk of the CoViD-19. China has a population of 1.5 billion. That’s four times more than the US. A total of 149.72 million outbound trips were made by Chinese tourists in 2018. Meanwhile, domestic tourist spots are also popular among Chinese residents. The number of domestic trips taken by Chinese travelers exceeded 5.5 billion in 2018; a total of 141.2 million inbound trips were made by tourists from outside the Chinese mainland. Among the 2018 inbound trips, 30.54 million were made by foreign travelers, with 76.3 percent from Asia. The total number of outbound and inbound trips hit 291 million in 2018. This year the trips were much shorter. Those who went home on vacation were not able to return. The number of Chinese going abroad has also decreased. Most countries have tightened their entry on Chinese citizens. The CoViD-19 has affected the Chinese economy. Things are stagnant. Industries are not fully operational. Its impact has spread around the world. Is Western criticism justified? The West has been criticizing China for the spread of the CoViD-19. The US Department of Commerce said the United States would increase employment due to the CoViD in China. Criticizing China, one of the Denmark magazines published a cartoon featuring the virus in place of a star used on a Chinese flag. In the Western countries, Chinese citizens are being treated as if they are carrying CoViD with them. The West is tapping China on this issue. Now let’s look at some examples of such epidemics around the world. Ebola in West Africa has killed 11,323 people within 2013-16. The cases were confirmed in the US and Europe too. SARS, killed 774 around the world. In 2009-10, the 2009 flu pandemic or swine flu killed 14,286. Among the death tools 3,433 were from North America. The Zika virus, seen in 2015-16, was spread to 90 countries in the world. In 2015, swine flu confirmed in India killed more than two thousands. China is trying its best to control CoViD-19. Within 10 days, two designated hospitals were constructed. Most of the stadiums in Wuhan are now used as mobile cabin hospitals. Similarly, Chinese People’s Liberation Army doctors have been flown to Wuhan from all over the country. Not just the military, non-military doctors have been concentrated in Wuhan from all over the country. The local government is working to secure the return of foreign nationals from Wuhan to their country safely. Chinese authorities assisted in evacuating the Nepalese living there. Nepalese officials did not arrive from Beijing to Wuhan, but Chinese authorities made all preparations for the evacuation of 175 Nepalese. We must not forget now that, if China had not taken precautions, its infection would have spread worldwide. Not only that, Nepal is China’s neighbor. If there had not been these precautions Nepal would have

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US Tibetan Policy: Possibilities Of Using Nepal’s Land Against China

At present, there is debate of Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) in Nepal. Secondly the debate of US Indo-Pacific Strategy (IPS) is reaching in peak. But, the US bill on Tibetan Policy and Support Act 2019 is in under the shadow which directly impact on Nepal-China relations. The policy targeting to the Tibet, an autonomous region of China has focused on Nepal to. This new law has shown signs of interference with Nepal’s ‘One China Policy’. However, there has been no discussion of a Tibetan bill passed by the United States in Nepal that has been embroiled in MCC controversy. In fact, in the political document presented in the second full meeting of the central committee of the ruling party of Nepal; Communist Party of Nepal (CPN) was stated that IPS had come in line with US strategy to surround China. Later It was corrected after the many of CCM agitate on the phrase. The document remains silent about the MCC and the bill. Meeting formed the task force under the leadership of senior leader JhalaNath Khanal to review the MCC. PrimeMinister Kp Sharma Oli, one of the Chair of the CPN is in position to pass the MCC from the parliament. This article is focused on the another factor affecting Nepal-China relations; US Tibetan Policy and Support Act 2019. What is the latest US law on Tibet? A law passed by the US parliament last month has closely monitored the human rights situation in Tibet. Also support the activities of ‘Dalai Lama’ and his followers. Not only that, it supported the separationist of the Tibet. The law is expected to put pressure on China to set up a US diplomatic center in Tibet. Under this legal foundation, the United States will now ban the new Chinese consulate in the United States until it establishes its diplomatic center in Tibet. However, China has commented that the US move would help those seeking independent Tibet. China has accused the US of questioning China’s sovereignty and geographical integrity. The law that is now passed will replace the ‘Tibetan Policy Act 2002’. US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has recently raised the issue of Tibet. “We are supporting the rights of religious freedom of Tibetan citizens,” she said during a vote in parliament last month, “The Tibetan Buddhist community has the right to elect its religious leader and future Dalai Lama.” The new law has added a provision for the President to provide financial support to NGOs in Tibet for the sustainable development of the Tibetan community, to preserve cultural and historicity as well as to protect health education and the environment. Likewise, the bill envisages a special coordinator to look into the Tibet issue. The aim of which is to make the selection of new Dalai Lama through a democratic way through dialogue between the Dalai Lama’s representative and the Chinese government. Nepal under the new law Nepal is also discussed in US laws regarding Tibet. The third section of the law deals with the selection of the successor of the Dalai Lama. In this section, Nepal and Bhutan, India, Mongolia, China, Russia and the United States have a Tibetan Buddhist community accusing China of interfering in the selection of a new Dalai Lama. It also included the statement given by the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman on March 29, 1919, that the selection of the successor of the living Buddha along with the new Dalai Lama should be in accordance with Chinese laws and regulations. In this section, explaining American policy, the participation of the Tibetan Buddhist community in the election of a new Dalai Lama is mentioned in a traditional way. According to the wish of the 14th Dalai Lama, there should be an election of the 15th Dalai Lama. The law stipulates that the Chinese government or any government’s activities that restrict Tibetan Buddhist activity will violate the basic religious freedom of the Tibetan people and Tibetan Buddhists. The United States may be banned from engaging in such activities. By which activities of the The fifth section of this law also mentions the democratic system of the exiled Tibetan community. Under which the Tibetan refugee community around the world should be given the right to elect a leader with the right to self-governance. In section 4 of it, referring to the Tibetan community seeking to preserve its culture, religion and language, the US State Department must deal with the Government of Nepal. “The Secretary of State should urge the Government of Nepal to honor the Gentleman’s Agreement with the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees and to provide legal documentation to long-staying Tibetan residents in Nepal who fled a credible threat of persecution in Tibet in order to allow them to more fully participate in the economy and society of Nepal. ‘ By this Act, it is authorized to be appropriated $1,000,000 for each of the fiscal years 2021 through 2025 for the Office of the United States Special Coordinator for Tibetan Issues. Likewise, US will invest 1,250,000 $ on Name of Tibetan Scholarship Program each years on Nepal like nations. US will invest in Nepal on project of Humanitarian Assistance and Support to Tibetan Refugees in South Asia. It also amid to invest $8,000,000 for each year of the fiscal years 2021 through 2025 under to support activities which preserve cultural traditions and promote sustainable development, education, and environmental conservation in Tibetan communities in the Tibet Autonomous Region and in other Tibetan communities in China. Under the Assistance for Tibetans in India and Nepal, US will invest 6,000,000$ in name of promotion and preservation of Tibetan Culture and language Development. This investment is directly amid to development of future generation of Tibetan leaders. It will impact the relations between Nepal and China. The act has authorized to be appropriated $3,000,000 for each of the fiscal years 2021 through 2025 for programs to strengthen the capacity of Tibetan institutions and strengthen democracy, governance, information and international outreach, and research. Not only

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